PEEpULS is much better. I only see UPSLEEP* and recognize that as a phony, and I had already lost 2 minutes because I was late from lunch. Still need to see that shit.
#findingmedium
This turn destroyed me and I spent maybe 10 minutes tanking because I didn't know what to do. I really didn't want to open with 13H (SH)INOLA. F6 IO seems fine in hindsight #TIMESADDEST
I was kinda nervous on this turn, I saw big downsides with every option, and that probably prompted me to play more paranoid with this play. That being said, I was kinda happy that it looks like a huge mistake but I think it's not the worst (at least not the 37 points down Q has it as :D). spread does kinda matter though, so I should really play JO(E) and go for a bingo. JERID can get in trouble if he hits an S play then a bingo, all the other J plays can get triple tripled on. JOTA can of course go south with 2 bingoes, or even a 14J play, but at least I'm very likely to hit a bingo, and it's unlikely he would hit a 14J play and a bingo and I don't hit a bingo. I still outrun 1 bingo very consistently, after JOTA for 11 or other J plays, but I guess after other J plays I can start beating 2 bingoes. f2 JOTA or 2f JOE are probably the plays here, even though it sucks to give up the occasional triple triple. those only really lose to 2 bingoes or a triple triple, and even then the 2 bingoes are very unlikely (I'd have to not bingo). so a triple triple is probably less likely than a big 14 play + bingo after JOTA, but I don't think this is a massive error. #strategymedium or something? idk
I used my astounding and unfathomable knowledge of the leave values to correctly determine that H1 LIMA is better than H1 DIME and I am vindicated by the engine analysis which evaluates H1 LIMA as 0.1 equity better. Also, I completely missed G6 ID(E)M which is the best play #visionsad
this is all very close but I decided against E10 (A)KEE because I really didn't like the leave. this also set up the sneaky I7 E(V)E with another E draw, which bails me out on a lot of racks. Nevertheless this is probably #tacticssad
damn didn't see PROMPT! that looks better here. #findingmedium also not much inspiration on this exchange, I guess it's fine? not much scoring power with PR so I wasn't a huge fan, same w the X
I put an exclamation point here. I don't know if I didn't see that she had AXE for 57 (doubt I missed that) or if I felt she would miss it again or if I just wanted to go for equity despite knowledge of her rack. Weird. I feel like J5 OW is clear. #strategymedium
MOLASSE# is actually a big mistake, and I should attempt to go out with a bingo. 4A MOWS appears to be best, winning about 1/5 of games if Championship Player is to be trusted. #strategylarge
I think I didn't consider FLABS but I kinda remember considering FLAB and not liking that C- bingoes wouldn't play. I think FLABS is def worth it though, this is badddd #findingmedium
from this position arises (edit: what I thought was) the most amazing endgame sequence I've ever seen a sub-1000 rated player play. I genuinely thought I was Q-sticking here. (edit: And I was)
Quackle's choice is N1 NU, and it seems to win by 209 according to its endgame analysis, so at least that's consistent with its estimations here. Still don't know if I should trust this.
#endgamesaddest
almost fished the O for ATELIER/LAETRI(L)E unblockable or ELATERS/STEALER.
Fishing the O is .5 better for average spread than my play of SOLATE. The I, along with the A, is most likely to be in the bag given his last play of S(E)A. So fishing the O is best #tacticsmedium
tip: if you have a bingo on your first move of the tournament, play it. You'll be infinitely more likely to win said tournament if you do. I saw TROWTHS, but ROWTH didn't have a hook in my head #knowledgesaddest
F8 VAU man the U really sucks huh #tacticssadder ##equity
Specifying an S on his rack makes this play a lot better, but not better enough to justify the sac'ed equity
J8 FI(XI)NG #visionsad. I liked FLIER because it effectively shuts down the left half of the board for good, and that's why I decided against FLINGE(R). But this scores too much and doesn't open more.
i just make bad decisions when i'm sucking. i think i'd only won 2 games this whole day by now, and even though i did see BEVEL at 11K i thought HEME was better for some reason. i just want points now even though he can score a lot overlapping me, and EHM? is a perfectly good leave. -8 #strategylarge
I think I missed 3B NA(I)F. That seems good here as well, since I am not sure of SEPTORIAS, so a lot of the value of OF decreases if I choose not to play SEPTORIAS. #knowledgesmall
didn't find enough plays here - HUM 13B and P(R)AHU are both good. I saw THUMP and HAO, both of which seem a bit better than this. I underestimated IMNPU, I suppose it's at least balanced and decent for scoring despite the U. I feel like I overthought this position despite not thinking very coherently. #findingmedium
Not a very good endgame by me, as OUTA completely escapes me despite seeing the hook earlier. Just didnt think about it in the context of blocking both URUS spots. #endgamelarge
A rather bizarre play, sacrificing a lot of equity over JEER or either JIMP. I just couldn't stomach the CDIIM leave after JEER, and also didn't like that JEER invited underlaps that block the GURUS hook. EJIDO does a much better job keeping the left hand side open in the long term and floats an E that's not too easy to block without giving back a new lane. DIME(R)I(C) is another option I missed, but I prefer getting rid of the J ASAP since bingoing quickly is of paramount importance. I'm still fine with EJIDO, but Josh preferred JEER and Quackle agrees with him by a decent margin, so I'll call this a #strategysmall.
I wasn't sure if LEW(D) G5 would always outrun H1 plays, but it does just barely get the job done. This can lose to NO(C)T(U)RIAS if I leave the A in the bag. I only calculated RE(C)A(U)TION, which also loses when the A is in the bag. I transposed letters when thinking about the draws and didn't recognize this. Had I seen that drawing EY wouldn't necessarily win, I would have gone with LEW(D) #strategySADDEST
Not playing the bingo and playing 15A (WHIT)STER instead sims better which is kinda cool. also 11H STRiFES sims better i guess because i bingo more next turn?? is this is a #strategysad ? could be
decided this was worth a shot, even over (OX)IDIZE, since it was an amazing Q setup, and I just win if he lets it go basically. He challenged not based on knowing OXAZINE, OXAZOLE or OXAZEPAM, but on just not liking this. Ugh. #knowledgelarge
So many lanes, so much potential! I spent more than 5 minutes looking for bingos and didn't see one. After the game, I gave the rack to Alec and he found the only bingo in about 30 seconds. Dude is *sharp*. Also, LENO 1A is better than any other play by far. I must have gotten flustered after wasting all my time failing to find the bingo that I didn't take more time to find the right non-bingo play. (-30) #visionlarge, #strategylarge, #timemanagementlarge
Way off. The right play here is MURA 5B, setting up the Y. I didn't see it, or anything else for that matter. And no, I didn't pick up on any tells; I'm just a spazz. -17 #visionlarge
could not be 100% sure of COGG(E)D, so given Glenn's challenge-y nature of years past, I couln't pull the trigger despite being pretty confident. #knowledgesmall
When do I learn that I should never keep two or more I's? And I'm not ahead by enough that I should be paranoid about row 15. K8 MOIRAI is best. #strategymedium
This should've been DEGUST, which I considered; there are no spots for sevens with my DST leave apart from DOJOS or EMS. Quackle says I bingo 21% after TEGU and 18% after DEGUST, which is easily close enough for me to take 9 extra points here. #strategysmall
4A JE(ZA)IL would have been 10 more and forced a response from him that would allow me to open the board more. If he takes the J spot, I could have a nice Column K reparallel. #findingmeh
I honestly thought he had taken away a ticket back into the game, but unfortunately I did not see my bing to the O, once again. Damn. If I had only thought about this rack as more than a "play ENTICES/IGLOOS if he doesn't block and play it with KIS if he does block" #findinglarge #knowledgelarge
CoCo Seattle Scrabble tournament round 4. The static evaluator likes 8H CRAMBE, an interesting idea that prevents most seven-letter bingos that don't contain an S. Championship Player likes 8D CEMBRA#, which I didn't know. I was unsure of CAMBER, which I would have played at 8D. #knowledgesmall
Another terrible decision. I got spooked by his last play and was trying to find something that would work best against his range. It's not what I played. G3 UND(E)R(LI)T is a much better play with the same idea. Also probably better than this is just 6B Z(E) or some echange like Exch. DUNNT. Of those options, I like G3 UND(E)R(LI)T the best. It blocks a few spots while saving B6 and C9 Z plays. #findingsaddest
9H HUP, the sim winner, is extremely defensive, allowing Orry an average of only 16 points next turn; but I don't like that it keeps the F. I like POUFS because it unloads FU and sets up the H at 8L. Although a play like K7 FACTA would make the spot hard to use. #tacticssmall
This is one of five plays that win 100% because they block N5 VENDEES--a word I had forgotten about. Quackle likes L8 WO because it doesn't empty the bag. This is the pre-endgame, though, and I don't trust Quackle here. I like 10J WAUR, unloading a U with one unseen. #strategymedium
Unfortunately, though I was lamenting the fact that SHEIK wouldn't play because KE* isn't a word, I forgot about it once Carl played EX. I burned the rest of my time checking and double-checking AIMORV? for bingos and just assuring myself that AVIFORM# was Collins and OVIFORM TWL; when finally it came time to make a move, I made a huge mistake with SLEEK, which leaves only one out, compared to SHEIK, which scores 12 more and goes out in two. SLEEK is a whopping -35. #endgamelarge
H10 (T)ANGUN is better because it doesn't make the hotspot. I really hated giving all those floaters but I didn't see anything better. #knowledgemedium
a poor pre-endgame. once i laid it down i realized where it put the A, and with the unseen tiles he's likely to hit me back for a ton of points. i figured i'd probably won the early bird but i shouldn't be so lazy and pick it up and look again. i considered ducal and acold too. 1F CADI sims best on many-ply. -3 #lazynessmedium #strategymedium
Quackle ranks the 2x2's: 1) 5E sOREDIAL#, 2) K4 mODIOLAR#, 3) 5E fORELAID#, 4) K5 tOROIDAL. I decided to play through the O to prevent any 2x2's in response, but 2x2's on row 11 probably should be less of a concern than the scoring spots that my bingo creates. mODIOLAR or tOROIDAL sets up the J and Z at J10 or J6 respectively, while sOREDIAL or fORELAID sets up the X at 6F (fORELAID also sets up the X at 6J). Because the spot under sOREDIAL is hardest to hit---requiring the X and either I or O---it makes sense for sOREDIAL to be best. Though I still don't understand why mODIOLAR should be better than tOROIDAL. #tacticssmall
Really tough spot here. FUME F10 was my first instinct, and then I deferred from that thinking about the board long-term, etc. MIME H12 scored the most and set up a lane for later, but I think I overreacted here by trying to keep the bottom untouched. #strategysmall
wow, my fallback play if this was somehow not valid... is not valiid! BULBING* BULBED!
My confidence in the words in this position, from most confident to least confidence, was
1) BULBING*
2) RUBBLING
3) BLURBING
4) BURBLING
#questionable #knowledgesmall